A juvenile who wins a Grade 1 stakes and earns a free ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile usually goes. U.S.S. Valor is not going.
The colt won his second career start at Saratoga by 13¼ lengths and ran a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest of any 2-year-old this season. Then he took the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, earning 10 qualifying points for the 2027 Kentucky Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and owner Barry Irwin of Team Valor International could have taken the fees-paid berth to the Breeders’ Cup. They passed.
It looks bold, and the history behind it makes it look smart.
Why skipping the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile makes sense
Irwin has said the Breeders’ Cup would not help the real goal, which is the Kentucky Derby. The numbers back him up. Since 1984, only two horses have won both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby: Street Sense and Nyquist.
A maximum effort in early November, in a big field, is a lot to ask of a young horse. Skipping it protects him for the spring.
His next target is the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on December 5. It’s a two-turn race at 1⅛ miles, which is the type of distance he’ll face on the Derby trail. After the Champagne, he was expected to stay in light training in New York before heading to Florida.
The pedigree: speed from one side, stamina from the other
Sire: War of Will. He’s by War Front, a sire line known for speed and turf milers, so you’d expect his runners to favor shorter distances on grass. War of Will broke that pattern. He won the 2020 Maker’s Mark Mile on turf, but his best work came on dirt: the 2019 Lecomte, the Risen Star, and the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles.
The stamina came from his dam, Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells, a name closely tied to distance running.
Dam: Spangled Banner. She’s by Tiz Wonderful, a son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow. The Tiznow line has a reputation for tough, determined horses who thrive from 1⅛ to 1¼ miles. Spangled Banner has also produced Expressman, a Grade 1-placed runner by Liam’s Map.
Go back further and the female family includes Curalina, a multiple Grade 1-winning filly, and Canadian Horse of the Year Uncaptured. Eastern Echo, the sire of the second dam, adds the blood of Damascus, a name linked to toughness and carrying speed over ground.
The short version: U.S.S. Valor blends speed from War Front with dirt stamina from the Tiznow side, which is the mix you want for a Derby prospect.
His three races so far
Debut, Saratoga, August 8. In a 6½-furlong maiden race, he drew the inside post, got pushed wide at the start, and settled sixth. He was sharply steadied near the five-sixteenths pole in heavy traffic, then found room and rallied to finish third, beaten three-quarters of a length by Gaudreau and a neck behind Coach Pope. His final quarter was the fastest of the race.
The form held up. Gaudreau earned an 89 Beyer. Coach Pope later won by 12½ lengths and then took the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity.
Breakout, Saratoga, September 5. Four weeks later, at seven furlongs, he pressed the pace, ran away on the far turn, and won by 13¼ lengths over Tap Our Way. Manuel Franco rode him conservatively.
The final time was nearly a full second faster than Pharocity’s in another division of the same race. It was also faster than The Good Life’s time in the Grade 1 Hopeful the next day. By the numbers, he could have won the Hopeful by double-digit lengths. Even Irwin was surprised, saying he’d expected a six-length win.
Champagne Stakes, Belmont Park, October 3. Sent off at 1-4, he broke slowly and sat behind a tightly bunched field while Gaudreau and Johnny Hockey set moderate fractions. Franco let him relax and take dirt. Near the quarter pole, he angled out, bumped with Earth Song, and forced his way through a narrow gap. Once clear, he passed Gaudreau and Club Reign and won by 6½ lengths.
That race showed he’s more than a front-runner. He handled traffic, contact, and a route distance, and still finished strong.
The speed figures, and the bounce question
The 105 Beyer from the September 5 maiden win ties the figure Fierceness earned in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Equibase rated it a 104.
Huge efforts like that sometimes lead to a “bounce,” a drop in performance as a young horse recovers. U.S.S. Valor did regress in the Champagne, with a 95 Beyer and a 97 Equibase figure. But a 95 is still a strong number for a 2-year-old, and he won a Grade 1 by 6½ lengths after a slow start and a troubled trip.
That’s the real takeaway: his floor is already high, and if he returns to his peak, the ceiling could be higher.
What to watch next
Three things will tell us whether this plan is working:
- The Remsen on December 5. Can he stretch to 1⅛ miles and win off the layoff?
- His training this winter. Staying sound and sharp matters more than anything else.
- His 3-year-old debut. How he comes back will show whether the patient approach paid off.
If he checks those boxes, he has the speed, pedigree, and efficiency to be a major player on the 2027 Triple Crown trail.
FAQ
Why did U.S.S. Valor skip the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?
His connections believe another hard race in November wouldn’t help their goal of winning the Kentucky Derby. Only Street Sense and Nyquist have won both races since 1984.
What is U.S.S. Valor’s record?
Three starts: two wins and one third-place finish. His wins came in a Saratoga maiden race and the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes.
Who trains U.S.S. Valor?
Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. The colt races for Team Valor International, led by Barry Irwin.
What’s next for U.S.S. Valor?
The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on December 5, a two-turn race at 1⅛ miles.
Who is U.S.S. Valor’s sire?
War of Will, winner of the 2019 Preakness Stakes.
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